Working Papers


Financial Regulation and AI: A Faustian Bargain?
With Christopher Clayton
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  • We study whether AI methods applied to large-scale portfolio holdings data can improve financial regulation. We build a state-of-the-art, graph-based deep learning model tailored to security-level data on the holdings of financial intermediaries. The architecture incorporates economic priors and learns latent representations of both assets and investors from the network structure of portfolio positions. Applied to the universe of non-bank financial intermediaries, covering nearly $40 trillion in wealth, the model substantially outperforms existing approaches in out-of-sample forecasts of intermediary trading behavior, including in crisis episodes. Its learned representations capture economically meaningful structure that conventional measures miss: the model has more than ten times the explanatory power for the cross-sectional variation in asset returns during stress events compared to traditional approaches, and it outperforms existing systemic risk metrics at the institution level. The architecture is fully inductive: even when entire asset classes or investors are withheld from training, the model still produces informative forecasts for those unseen entities. We embed our empirical approach into a macroprudential optimal policy framework to formalize why these objects matter for policy and welfare. We show that even in an equilibrium environment subject to the usual Lucas critique, the predictive information from the model improves welfare by sharpening the cross-sectional targeting of policy interventions, and we demonstrate a complementarity between prediction and structural knowledge.

Geoeconomic Pressure
With Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger
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Selected Press Coverage: Washington Post | Financial Times (1) | Financial Times (2)

  • Geoeconomic pressure—the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic goals—is a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically identify the application of and response to geoeconomic pressure from large textual corpora. We classify which governments apply pressure to which foreign targets, using which instruments, firms, and products. We demonstrate that firms affected by tariffs respond primarily with price changes whereas firms affected by export controls respond disproportionately by investing in research and development. We document significant heterogeneity in how firms respond to pressure based on whether their home government is applying the pressure, whether their home country is the recipient of the pressure, or whether they are based in an affected third party country. Finally, we quantify the degree of measurement uncertainty generated by the LLM-based analysis by comparing the classifications across multiple open-weight models as well as considering a wide range of variations of our prompts.

The Geography of Capital Allocation in the Euro Area
With Roland Beck, Angus Lewis, Matteo Maggiori, Martin Schmitz, and Jesse Schreger
Revise & Resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics
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Policy Coverage: ECB Biennial Report on Financial Integration in the Euro Area | ECB Review on the International Role of the Euro

  • We assess Euro Area financial integration correcting for the role of “onshore offshore financial centers” (OOFCs) within the currency union. The OOFCs of Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands serve dual roles as hubs of investment fund intermediation and centers of securities issuance by foreign firms. We provide new estimates of Euro Area countries’ bilateral external portfolio investments which look through both roles, attributing the wealth held via investment funds to the underlying holders and linking securities issuance to the ultimate parent firms. Our estimates show that the Euro Area is less financially integrated than it appears, both vis-à-vis the rest of the world and within the union. Portfolio exposures of the Euro Area to other major economies such as the United States and to foreign currency assets are nearly halved in size. While official data suggests a sharp decline in portfolio home bias among Euro Area countries relative to global trends following the introduction of the euro, we demonstrate that this pattern only remains true for bond portfolios, while it is artificially generated by OOFC activities for equity portfolios. We link these dynamics to investors’ preferences toward debt assets denominated in their home currency, with an important role of the common currency in capital market integration.

Publications


Liquidity, Debt Denomination, and Currency Dominance
With Arvind Krishnamurthy and Chenzi Xu
Journal of Finance, 2026 (Forthcoming)
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Press and Policy Coverage: GSB Insights | Speech by SEC Chair Gary Gensler

  • Over four centuries, specific currencies have dominated global debt denomination. We present a liquidity-based theory that explains the centrality of the Dutch florin, British pound, and US dollar, and that rationalizes features of the international monetary system. Firms issue debt that is extinguishable by financial assets in the same denomination. Asset markets endogenously di!er in liquidity, and firms optimally choose to denominate debt in the most liquid asset’s unit. Issuing in the more liquid denomination raises its benefits, generating dominant currency equilibria. Governments initiate and reinforce this process by fostering large pools of liquid assets and investing in market liquidity.

Currency Development Through Liquidity Provision 
With Arvind Krishnamurthy and Chenzi Xu
AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2025
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Press Coverage: Central Banking

  • Drawing on the experiences of the historical Eurodollar market and recent Chinese dollar bond issuances traded outside U.S. jurisdiction at negative spreads to Treasurys, we examine the conditions under which a parallel offshore dollar financial system that circumvents Western sanctions may emerge. We propose a model in which currency use is driven by liquidity provision and safe bond supply. We characterize three equilibrium regimes: high convenience yields emerge in both the initial sanctions-driven region and the final liquidity-driven region, separated by an intermediate region. Transitions between equilibria depend on safe-asset supply and liquidity technologies, in addition to endogenous dynamic complementarities.

In Safe Hands: The Financial and Real Impact of Investor Composition Over the Credit Cycle
Review of Financial Studies, 2025
Main Text | Appendix

Finalist, BlackRock Applied Research Award 2021
AQR Top Finance Graduate Award 2022
European Systemic Risk Board, Ieke van den Burg Prize 2022

Policy Coverage: BIS Annual Economic Report | Committee on Capital Markets Regulation | Banque de France Financial Stability Report

  • I show that investor composition impacts bond price dynamics and capital allocation during crises. Using large-scale holdings data and within-firm ownership variation across near-identical bonds, I causally identify bond returns’ investor composition elasticities. Corporate bonds held predominantly by insurers rather than mutual funds suffer milder losses in downturns: increasing insurer holdings by half a bond’s size causes 20% shallower drawdowns. A shift-share instrument isolates variation from large insurers’ idiosyncratic primary-market allocations. Differences in intermediaries’ liability structures drive these results, which hold across countries. During crises, firms with more stable bondholders maintain higher borrowing at lower cost and invest more.

China in Tax Havens 
With Christopher Clayton, Amanda Dos Santos, Matteo Maggiori, and Jesse Schreger
AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2023
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Additional Resources: SIEPR Policy Brief | Related Non-Technical Piece
Press Coverage: Bloomberg | NBER Digest | The New York Times

  • We document the rise of China in offshore capital markets. Chinese firms use global tax havens to access foreign capital both in equity and bond markets. In the last twenty years, China’s presence went from raising a negligible amount of capital in these markets to accounting for more than half of equity issuance and around a fifth of global corporate bonds outstanding in tax havens. Using rich micro data, we show that a range of Chinese firms, including both tech giants and SOEs, use these offshore centers. We conclude by discussing the macroeconomic and financial stability implications of these patterns.

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens 
With Matteo Maggiori, Brent Neiman, and Jesse Schreger
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2021
Main Text | Appendix | Data

Selected Press Coverage: The Economist | Financial Times | Bloomberg | NBER Digest | The Wire China

  • Global firms finance themselves through foreign subsidiaries, often shell companies in tax havens, which obscures their true economic location in official statistics. We associate the universe of traded securities issued by firms in tax havens with their issuer’s ultimate parent and restate bilateral investment positions to better reflect the financial linkages connecting countries around the world. Bilateral portfolio investment from developed countries to firms in large emerging markets is dramatically larger than previously thought. The national accounts of the United States, for example, understate the U.S. position in Chinese firms by nearly 600 billion dollars. Further, we demonstrate how offshore issuance in tax havens affects our understanding of the currency composition of external portfolio liabilities and the nature of foreign direct investment. Finally, we provide additional restatements of bilateral investment positions, including one based on the geographic distribution of sales.

Work in Progress


Applied AI for Open-Economy Financial Regulatory Policy
With Christopher Clayton

News, Trading Behavior, and Systemic Risk
With Christopher Clayton

A Quantitative Model of Multinational Corporate Taxation
With Christopher Clayton, Kunal Sangani, and Andreas Schaab